Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 4 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 18 July 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 49th strongest of the 114 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 27 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 7 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 4:10PM EDT until July 18 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ
Urban PEI: 45,675 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 27 May 2026
- September 5, 2026 · score 37 · 12.7 km
- September 4, 2026 · score 37 · 12.7 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 39 · 22.6 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.1381, -77.7051 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (28 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 45.7K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-18T20:10:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ee984e47f0d64730610129e679a5c629 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-18T20:10:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-18T20:13:03.474Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Chester, PA; Burlington, NJ; Burlington, NJ; Monmouth, NJ; Ocean, NJ and 11 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 4:10PM EDT until July 18 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ |
| Expires | 2026-07-18T16:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Mount Holly NJ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 16 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ee984e47f0d64730610129e679a5c62958b39f92.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f9e196170f2a6fda14ecdb68649b4495a43c9899.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2c353dc8127558761b0b7d31897dde6b038e4ab5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.10638c2f8d59b3b89ddeddaf86e2c5c33f0b72b7.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.267627d8762f89d2a409cb4e19a3aa3bfd361aa8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.23fcfebf35506bb750883d7a83586a9e30dbdebc.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6ad0137304375747b5b05a8602ae609360336af3.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.75a2f37ac62ff31b5babbd6370ff89c67c16ea5a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fd7ecd13a145b4fc8230a0bc92ee181fc04c0fa9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4b7aa11745b750d8ec106cd410e8691124f56b55.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4e18c450593c6c84c00ae670505348bd1647a028.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.28b8f58f95f43e90015129f38b7567ac1859ffd3.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ddd84383277ba1673b9a07f24266aab4c772b509.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fe706b73f2feef4fc7c0ac3b8b31876eec962739.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6a260d1737f7c0a4c1a3a404b6f3a3bdbe3c19c9.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fc8f976d0fdc3db4e20c7cbe3fe13b00b97d6409.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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